Broncos (5-4) at Chiefs (8-0)
When: Sunday, 11 a.m. MT
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Broncos-Chiefs series: Denver is 55-72 in 127 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos won 24-9 in the last meeting, on Oct. 29, 2023, in Denver, snapping a 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs.
In the spotlight: Kansas City’s third-down offense could be problem for Denver
When the Chiefs get into third-down situations, they hit another gear.
Kansas City has the best third-down offense in the league, converting 53.2% of its attempts in those situations this season. That success could create problems for the Broncos, who must keep star quarterback Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible on Sunday.
“They have been very good because they have been in third (and short) most of the time,” Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said.
The Chiefs have had 41 plays on third down with one to three yards to go. In those situations, they have gained a first down 25 times. Kansas City has recorded seven offensive touchdowns while averaging 74 yards on third down.
In the Chiefs’ thrilling 30-24 overtime victory over the Buccaneers, they were 12 for 18 on third down. All four of their touchdowns in Week 9 came on that down, including running back Kareem Hunt’s game-winning score.
Predictably, Mahomes has been one of the best in the league in those critical situations. He is seventh in passing yards (550) and tied for second in touchdown passes (six) while completing 67.6% of his pass attempts, according to Sports Info Solutions.
“They put their personnel in the right places to succeed,” cornerback Pat Surtain II told The Denver Post. “They got concepts for every coverage.”
Surtain added that tight end Travis Kelce, who recorded 100 yards on 14 catches against Tampa Bay, does a good job of finding soft spots in zone coverages. The addition of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins makes Kansas City even more challenging to stop.
Hopkins had eight catches for 86 yards and two touchdowns in his second game since getting traded from the Titans. His highlight-reel 35-yard catch in the second quarter came on third-and-8.
“He understands what they are trying to do schematically on third down,” Surtain told The Post. “When you (have) new guys coming in and understanding the philosophy on third down, that’s what makes it tough to really stop them.”
The Broncos have been in the middle of the pack as a third-down defense. Denver has allowed opponents to convert 36.8% of its third-down attempts — 16th in the league. The Broncos have given up five touchdowns on third down, with four coming through the air. Even though Denver has a relatively low blitz rate of 28.6% on such plays, they have generated 48 pressures — third-most in the league, according to Next Gen Stats.
“Who can win (on) third down? That’s the game we have to play on Sunday,” Joseph said.
Who has the edge?
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Source:: The Denver Post – Sports
