The trends suggest Utah is the play Saturday night as a home underdog in the first Holy War in three years.
Even though the Utes have dropped four in a row and changed playcallers and quarterbacks.
Even though Brigham Young is undefeated and churning toward a date in the Big 12 title game.
Even though the Cougars have eight wins and the Utes have four.
And when the trends speak, the Hotline typically listens. Here’s what they say:
— Utah has dominated the series, winning 14 of the past 20 matchups and seven of the past nine at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
— The underdog covered the spread in 15 of those 20 games.
— When one team has at least three more wins than the other at the time of kickoff, the team with the better record is 3-0 straight up but 1-2 against the spread.
Those same fundamentals exist this week with the Utes as a four-point home underdog.
But in a season that makes no sense, with the Cougars and Utes in a role reversal for the ages, our instinct is to avoid the sensible and dismiss the trends.
To ignore the lure of the home underdog in a series that favors the home underdog.
Our instinct is to take BYU, give the points and watch the current trajectories continue.
The Utes find ways to lose.
The Cougars find ways to win.
We don’t know how it will unfold but fully expect the unexpected. And in a series dominated by the underdog, the unexpected result would be a decisive victory by the favorite.
To the picks …
Last week: 4-3
Season: 50-35-1
Five-star special: 5-5
All picks against the spread
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com
(All times Pacific)
Cal (-7) at Wake Forest
Kickoff: Friday at 5 p.m. on the ACC Network
Comment: The Bears as a touchdown favorite on the road? That presents an opportunity we cannot ignore — an opportunity to take the home underdog. Pick: Wake Forest
San Jose State (+4) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on The CW
Comment: The Beavers have struggled defensively against the run (186 yards per game), but SJSU has no running game to speak of. First-year coach Ken Niumatalolo, who previously coached Navy’s triple option, is all about the aerial game. That should benefit the Beavers. Pick: Oregon State
South Carolina (-3.5) at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 1:15 p.m. on the SEC Network
Comment: Few teams across the land have been better against the spread than the Commodores, who have covered in all five SEC games. The Gamecocks will be riding high after their upset of Texas A&M and underestimating their opponent. Pick: Vanderbilt
UCF (+3) at Arizona State
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN2
Comment: This feels like a pump-the-brakes game for the Sun Devils, who clinched a bowl berth last week and will be feeling good about their trajectory — a bit too good, in our view. Another unexpected result in the wild Big 12. Pick: UCF
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Source:: The Mercury News – Entertainment
