Daniela Altimari and Mary Ellen McIntire | (TNS) CQ-Roll Call
WASHINGTON — The Democrats’ fragile hold on the Senate majority is likely to come down to the fates of a dirt farmer from north-central Montana, a Rust Belt populist and a trio of senators from battleground states.
Less than eight weeks out from Election Day, Montana’s Jon Tester and Ohio’s Sherrod Brown lead the list of Roll Call’s most vulnerable senators, followed by Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen and Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin. The ranking is based on extensive conversations with campaign insiders, party officials and independent election analysts.
Roll Call typically focuses on the 10 most endangered members in each chamber, but as has been true all cycle, the Senate list keeps thinning. Our first assessment in May 2023 of the landscape for this fall featured Democrat Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, independent Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Republican Mitt Romney of Utah; all have since taken themselves out of contention by announcing their retirements.
And our most recent list, published in early May, was led by New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, who resigned in August after he was convicted on federal corruption charges.
Republicans need a net gain of two seats to take the majority next year — or one seat and control of the White House, since the vice president breaks ties. And with Manchin’s retirement, the GOP is all but guaranteed to pick up the seat in ruby-red West Virginia.
While our list looks only at vulnerable incumbents, there are several high-profile open seats whose outcomes will also shape the balance of power in the chamber.
One of the biggest Senate battlegrounds is in Arizona, where Republican Kari Lake is running against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates that race Tilt Democratic.
In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers are vying for a seat being vacated by Sen. Debbie Stabenow. Inside Elections also rates that race Tilt Democratic.
The GOP’s hopes in Maryland rest with former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican who has been outspoken about his disagreements with presidential nominee Donald Trump. He’s facing Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks in a race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin. The contest is rated Likely Democratic, a nod to the state’s deep-blue underpinnings.
There are two other races worth keeping an eye on as the campaign season winds down.
Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico was showing signs he might be vulnerable in his reelection battle against Republican Nella Domenici, the former chief financial officer of a large hedge fund who is the daughter of former Sen. Pete Domenici. Heinrich began airing ads in June, and he was among the Democrats publicly calling for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid. But Biden’s exit from the presidential race is seen as giving some down-ballot Democrats, such as Heinrich, a lift.
And in Nebraska, union leader Dan Osborn is waging a nonpartisan campaign to unseat Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. A poll by Split Ticket and SurveyUSA found the race essentially deadlocked, with Fischer at 39 percent and Osborn at 38 percent. But Fischer had $3 million on hand as of June 30, compared with $650,000 for Osborn. The race in a state Trump carried by 19 points in 2020 is rated Solid Republican.
Tester narrowly defeated a GOP incumbent in 2006, but since then, Montana has grown redder even as Tester has won by more comfortable margins. …read more
Source:: The Mercury News – Entertainment
