The Middle East has long been a source of misery for Washington. It could be a land of opportunity for Donald Trump.
In his first term as president, Trump brokered diplomatic détentes between Israel and several Arab states. In his second, he’ll encounter a region in which Israeli military successes have dramatically reset the balance of power. That creates the possibility for a bold play to roll back Iran’s influence and curb its nuclear program — if Trump can avoid stumbling into another Middle Eastern mess.
The regional situation has improved markedly from a year ago, when Israel looked shockingly vulnerable and Iran and its proxies seemed ascendant. Today, Israel hasn’t eliminated Hamas in Gaza, but it has wrecked most of its military capability. In Lebanon, Hezbollah can still fire rockets and conduct ambushes, but its leadership and long-range capabilities have been ravaged by Israeli assaults.
With U.S. help, Israel blunted Iranian missile and drone attacks in April and October, and delivered a damaging, targeted retaliation after the latter assault. With its proxies battered, its air defenses shredded and its missile arsenal devalued, Iran is more strategically naked than at any time in decades.
President Joe Biden deserves some credit here. Yes, Biden has often urged caution on Israel and his relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is toxic. Still, Biden has given Israel the arms, the diplomatic assistance and the time necessary to take the offensive. The idea that Israel defends itself by itself is a myth: Several times, U.S. forces have even fought directly on its behalf (by shooting down drones and missiles). Since the Hamas invasion on Oct. 7, 2023, U.S.-Israel relations have been both deeply dysfunctional and devastatingly effective. What will Trump make of this inheritance?
Likely U.S. moves
He appears to have forgiven Netanyahu for acknowledging Biden’s victory in 2020; he surely admires Israel’s recent shows of strength. That provides an opening — and reports that Iran allegedly tried to assassinate Trump this fall provides extra motive — to further reset the region by squeezing its most malevolent regime.
Trump will likely renew his “maximum pressure” campaign to starve Iran of resources. The United States might simultaneously take sharper military action against Yemen’s Houthis, still wreaking havoc on Red Sea shipping.
The United States could also make clear that, along with Israel, it will hold Iran directly responsible for proxy attacks — a precedent Trump set by killing General Qassem Soleimani in 2020 — rather than giving Tehran strategic immunity by responding only against the proxies themselves. And the United States might give Israel additional arms and intelligence for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities — perhaps even joining that attack itself — unless Tehran accepts a tougher nuclear deal than the one Trump exited in 2018.
Finally, expect Trump to pick up Biden’s push for a regional grand bargain — diplomatic normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, coupled with enhanced U.S. defense and technological ties to the Saudis — that would consolidate the anti-Iran coalition.
The temptation to make these moves will be strong, because success — reversing the two-decade expansion of Iranian influence and keeping Tehran from acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapons — would be so rewarding. Given that Iran, China, Russia and North Korea are cooperating more closely, weakening Tehran …read more
Source:: The Mercury News – Entertainment