As the Israel-Hamas war is supposedly entering a new phase of more targeted raids in Gaza, another war is raging along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Since Hamas’ Oct. 7 assault in southern Israel, the Israeli military and Hezbollah have engaged in deadly clashes in the border area. Israel said it has struck thousands of Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon, killing at least 300 Hezbollah fighters.
According to the Israeli military, Hezbollah has fired more than 5,000 rockets, drones and missiles into northern Israel, killing Israeli civilians and troops and forcing tens of thousands of Israelis to leave their homes.
The danger in this conflict shouldn’t be understated. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could conclude at some point that large-scale military action is required to push Hezbollah from its borders. During a June 5 visit to the northern Israeli town of Kiryat Shmona, Netanyahu emphasized that security will be restored to the north sooner or later. Plans for a large-scale Israeli operation against Hezbollah have reportedly been approved, which means the only thing standing in the way of another war in Lebanon is a political decision by Netanyahu.
For months, the Israel-Hezbollah tit-for-tat was confined to within 5 or 6 miles of the Blue Line, the United Nations-demarcated border between Israel and Lebanon. But the scope of hostilities is getting wider. It’s no longer rare for Israeli airstrikes to hit deep into Lebanon’s interior.
On June 10, Israel conducted its deepest strike in Lebanon yet, hitting a Hezbollah facility in the Baalbek region. Israel killed Hezbollah field commander Taleb Abdallah the next day, which prompted Hezbollah to retaliate with hundreds of rockets into northern Israel. Hezbollah is employing more sophisticated weapons to pierce Israeli air defenses.
A major adversary
Israeli military operations in Lebanon have a long history, with the military taking action in 1978 and 1982 against the Palestine Liberation Organization and in 1993, 1996 and 2006 against Hezbollah. None of those operations was especially successful. Israel’s 1982 invasion forced PLO leader Yasser Arafat to Tunisia but also resulted in an 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon that arguably produced Hezbollah. The 1993 and 1996 air campaigns were at best tactical successes. The 2006 war hit Hezbollah hard and restored deterrence along the border, but the Lebanese group quickly reconstituted its military power courtesy of Iranian assistance.
It’s difficult to see another large-scale Israeli invasion of Lebanon succeeding where others failed. Hezbollah is no longer an insurgency with limited reach — it’s the dominant political faction in Lebanese politics, and its military wing is larger than the official Lebanese army. Hezbollah’s arsenal, complete with as many as 200,000 missiles, attack drones, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance platforms and Iranian-supplied precision munitions, would all be used in a war with Israel. Israeli cities and towns far beyond the border region would sustain extensive damage. Hezbollah’s missiles can hit all of Israel, and the group has enough of them to confuse Israeli air defense systems.
President Joe Biden’s administration clearly understands just how destabilizing a war in Lebanon would be. U.S. officials have reportedly told their Israeli counterparts that a limited war against Hezbollah would likely force …read more
Source:: The Mercury News – Entertainment
