The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to wilnerhotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Say there is a three-way tie for first place in the SEC or Big Ten. Is there an argument to be made that a team would be better off left out of the conference championship game (due to an arbitrary tiebreaker), have the week off, presumably jump the loser of the title game and get a No. 5 or No. 6 seed? — Cole T
A great question that is deeply layered, and we’ll address as many of the intricacies as possible. But let’s start with the consequences of losing a conference championship game on a generic level.
Treatment of the losing team has been an issue since the College Football Playoff era began in 2014. There are examples both ways — with the losing team being punished in the selection committee rankings (following a poor performance) and with the losing team holding its ground.
Granted, the details and consequences were different in the four-team playoff era than they will be with 12 teams, but the basic premise remains: Team X should not drop below Team Y for playing a game the latter did not unless Team X loses decisively.
In a media webinar last week, CFP executive director Rich Clark addressed this very issue.
“It depends what the loss looks like,” Clark said. “But I don’t think teams will be unduly penalized for losing their championship game.”
(Define “unduly penalized” as you wish.)
The next matter is among the most fascinating within the new playoff structure: What is the optimal seed?
You could make a good case that it’s not No. 1.
In fact, the optimal seed might not be No. 2, 3 or 4, either, even though the top-four seeds receive byes into the quarterfinals.
Let’s use Oregon as the example and game out two scenarios:
Scenario No. 1: The Ducks win out, claim the Big Ten championship and, as the only undefeated team in either of the two heavyweight conferences, receive the No. 1 seed in the CFP.
First, we’d argue that entering the CFP with a 13-0 record is challenging unto itself because of the pressure and expectations that would accompany perfection. (In our view, the Ducks are better off losing once along the way.)
That said, a perfect finish to the regular season would send Oregon into the Big Ten title game on Dec. 7. Win that, and they would have a bye in the opening round (Dec. 20-21) and advance straight to the quarterfinals for a date in the Rose Bowl.
Following a 24-day break, the Ducks would face the No. 8-9 winner, which is likely to be a two-loss team from the SEC or Big Ten, or Notre Dame.
Either way, Oregon will be playing for the first time in three-and-a-half weeks against a high-level opponent that would have played just 10 days earlier — enough time to recuperate but …read more
Source:: The Mercury News – Entertainment
