The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline.
Please note: Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
Should we buy stock in Washington’s football team this season? Coach Jedd Fisch has turned some of us into believers in a top-tier bowl. Washington seems like such a resilient program. — @Moneyline_RAY
The Hotline had planned to address this topic next month — not only for the Huskies but every departing Pac-12 football program — but there’s no reason to wait.
A few teams are worth buying in their new conferences in 2024, but we would either sell or simply avoid most of them. And that includes UW.
Let’s dive in.
With college football teams as with publicly-traded companies, the decision to buy or sell is based on future value.
In this case, we are taking a short-term approach: Which teams have value in 2024, compared to market expectations, and which do not?
The Hotline holds a negative outlook for Washington in Fisch’s first season, for a slew of reasons: The disruption caused by the coaching change; the massive loss of talent, especially at quarterback, receiver and offensive line; and the difficulties posed by life in the Big Ten.
The Huskies won 14 games last season and played for the national championship, but that’s not our standard in 2024. Our standard is winning eight or nine games and competing for a top-tier finish in the Big Ten.
And we don’t see that happening.
It could be a long fall on Montlake.
The same is true for Arizona, which is coming off a breakthrough season, has a new head coach (Brent Brennan) and possesses enough returning talent to be considered a Big 12 frontrunner.
But we foresee challenges for the Wildcats in the upcoming season, with the lofty expectations atop the list.
They enjoyed the benefits of a low-pressure existence last season. That dynamic changes dramatically in 2024. How will the players and new coaching staff navigate the role of preseason favorite?
In Tucson as in Seattle, our approach is the same: Sell.
That said, there are a few teams worth buying.
Oregon is loaded on both sides of scrimmage and should compete for the Big Ten title, but expectations are extremely high for Dan Lanning and Co.
We would buy the Ducks on the dip.
Utah is the most intriguing option of all, with the potential for a sensational return-on-investment.
The Utes were battered by injuries last season but have all the ingredients needed to win the Big 12, from coaching stability to a veteran quarterback (Cam Rising), stout lines of scrimmage and a proven culture.
(We believe injuries typically revert to the mean from year to year. Teams that are fortunate one season tend to get hit hard the next, and vice versa.)
Additionally, the Utes don’t play Kansas or Kansas State, and they host BYU, Iowa State and Arizona. In a conference defined by parity, their schedule is indisputably favorable.
As Big 12 champions, the Utes would receive a bye into the College Football Playoff quarterfinals — …read more
Source:: The Mercury News – Entertainment
