Welcome to the Hotline’s projections for the toughest, most unforgiving conference in college basketball.
The Big 12 should start the 2024-25 season with at least five teams in the Associated Press top-25 rankings and several more with reasonable paths into the NCAA Tournament.
Put another way: The Four Corners schools, which join the conference in August, will experience a grim reality on the court.
Arizona, so used to supremacy in the Pac-12, will be fortunate to finish in the top quarter of the Big 12.
Colorado, Arizona State and Utah all seem destined to finish closer to last place than first.
Their road games will be more difficult, of course, but winning at home should be vastly more challenging. With better coaches, deeper rosters and tougher players, the Big 12 possesses more teams capable of surviving hostile environments.
Our projections account for NBA Draft decisions and transfer portal movement and reflect unforgiving terrain for the Big 12 newcomers.
1. Baylor. Sure, you could make a strong case for Kansas. Our lean to Baylor is based on the returns of Langston Love and Jayden Nunn, plus the additions of Duke guard Jeremy Roach and Miami big man Norchad Omier. And don’t forget about wing Jalen Celestine, either. The Cal transfer averaged 13.5 points in two games against Arizona last season. If the Bears don’t finish on top, they surely will land on the top tier unless injury wreck the season.
2. Kansas. No team in the Big 12 (new or old) more effectively revamped its roster during the spring tumult. KU convinced big man Hunter Dickinson to return and landed three high-impact transfers in AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State) and Rylan Griffen (Alabama).
3. Iowa State. The Cyclones have two elite guards, Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert, and owned the best defense in the country last season, according to the Pomeroy adjusted efficiency metrics. If they elevate the offensive production — in particular, the 35 percent shooting from 3-point range — the coveted regular-season title just might find its way to Ames.
4. Houston. Here’s a great example of the Big 12’s strength at the top: The Cougars return several key pieces from a roster that earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAAs, including guard L.J. Cryer, but they are merely one of several contenders for the crown. If Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan manages to fill one of Jamal Shead’s shoes, much less both, watch out.
5. Arizona. The Wildcats would be the clear favorites to win the Pac-12 in 2024-25, especially with guard Caleb Love withdrawing from the NBA Draft. But are they deep enough and tough enough to win consistently on the road — a prerequisite for any team planning to contend for the top shelf of the Big 12 race? We aren’t convinced.
6. Cincinnati. The Bearcats look like a fringe top-25 team in coach Wes Miller’s fourth season, thanks partly to the arrival of Texas guard Dillon Mitchell but mostly to experience. UC was 7-11 in conference play last year, with eight of the losses …read more
Source:: The Mercury News – Entertainment
