The Philadelphia Phillies committed to the long view when they signed Trea Turner to an 11-year megadeal, betting that his athleticism, speed, and all-around offensive profile would anchor the franchise through the heart of the decade. For now, that bet still looks reasonable. But as Bleacher Report recently outlined in its examination of MLB contracts most likely to become long-term headaches, Turner’s deal carries growing risk once the calendar turns toward 2028.
Bleacher Report’s framework strips away luxury-tax considerations and focuses purely on cash owed beginning in 2028. That approach paints a clearer picture of how aging curves and positional demands can quietly turn even productive contracts into structural challenges. In Turner’s case, the concern isn’t what he’s doing today—it’s how much longer his current skill set can realistically hold up at a premium defensive position.
Shortstops Rarely Age Gracefully—And Turner Has No Easy Exit
By the 2028 season, Turner will be entering his age-35 campaign with six years remaining on his contract and more than $160 million still owed. Historically, that’s dangerous territory for middle infielders. While there are exceptions, most shortstops experience sharp defensive and athletic decline in their early-to-mid 30s, often long before their contracts expire.
Turner’s value has always been tied to speed, range, and bat-to-ball ability. He’s still an excellent hitter, coming off a stretch that included a batting title and strong all-around production. But speed-based skills tend to erode quickly, and once that happens, the margin for error shrinks. If Turner loses even a half-step defensively, his ability to remain at shortstop becomes a real question.
That’s where the Phillies’ roster construction complicates matters. Unlike other teams that can shift aging shortstops to less demanding positions, Philadelphia doesn’t have obvious alternatives. Bryce Harper is locked in at first base, and the team’s designated hitter opportunities are already constrained by Kyle Schwarber’s long-term presence. That leaves Turner with few viable landing spots if shortstop eventually becomes untenable.
Bleacher Report highlighted this lack of flexibility as a major red flag. Turner can still hit. The issue is whether he’ll still be able to justify shortstop money while playing shortstop deep into his 30s.
Why the Back Half of the Deal Looms Large for Philadelphia
The Phillies aren’t facing immediate consequences from Turner’s contract. In fact, his production through the first half of the deal has largely aligned with expectations. Over his first three seasons in Philadelphia, he’s combined power, on-base ability, and speed in a way that keeps him among the league’s more valuable offensive shortstops.
The concern is timing. Turner will turn 40 before the contract expires, and the Phillies have already tied up significant money elsewhere on the roster. Long-term deals for Harper and Schwarber limit payroll flexibility, especially if younger players begin to demand extensions or arbitration raises.
Bleacher Report’s inclusion of Turner among potential future headaches isn’t a judgment on the signing itself. It’s a reminder that middle infield aging curves are unforgiving, regardless of talent. Even elite shortstops tend to fall off suddenly rather than gradually, and when that happens, the financial impact can linger for years.
For Philadelphia, the hope is that Turner continues to defy precedent—that his athleticism holds, his bat remains productive, and the decline comes late enough to minimize damage. If not, the Phillies could find themselves paying premium dollars for diminishing returns at one of the most demanding positions on the field.
Right now, Turner remains a cornerstone. But as Bleacher Report’s analysis makes clear, the most difficult part of his contract isn’t the present. It’s the future—and how the Phillies navigate it once time starts to win.
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