Lucas Giolito became a free agent this winter when he declined his half of a $19 million mutual option. After missing all of 2024 recovering from elbow surgery, Giolito bounced back in 2025. In 26 starts, he pitched to a 3.41 ERA over 145 innings, helping the Boston Red Sox end a four-year playoff drought.
Giolito is open to a reunion, but realizes that’s unlikely. Appearing on the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast, the right-hander told WEEI’s Rob Bradford, “I loved it there, and I would have loved to go back. I still would, but if you look at the writing on the wall, I don’t think they need another starting pitcher. That’s business, baby! That’s how it goes.”
Boston has moved quickly to shore up their rotation this offseason. They’ve acquired Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo in trades. Gray is slated to be the Red Sox’s No. 2 starter behind Garrett Crochet. Oviedo is one of many candidates expected to compete for the No. 5 starter role.
Why a Lucas Giolito Return to the Red Sox is Unlikely
As Giolito said himself, they don’t need another starting pitcher. Boston has enviable starting pitching depth, both in the short and long term. They’ve got two young, controllable starters in Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford. And they carry two high-impact pitching prospects in Payton Tolle and Connelly Early.
Roster Resource currently projects this rotation for the Red Sox.
- LHP Garrett Crochet
- RHP Sonny Gray
- RHP Brayan Bello
- RHP Kutter Crawford
- LHP Patrick Sandoval
They’ll need to monitor Crochet, who saw his innings count jump from 146.1 to 205 despite making the same number of starts (32). Sandoval and Crawford missed all of 2025, the former recovering from Tommy John surgery and the latter requiring surgery on his pitching wrist.
For the rotation, the Red Sox have plenty of depth to survive the season. Oviedo, Tolle, and Early are better than most organizations’ 6th-8th starters. Should Tolle and Early fail to make the rotation next spring, they’ll stay stretched out with Triple-A Worcester. Oviedo is a candidate to pitch in relief.
What’s Next for Giolito?
It’s been a painfully slow market for starting pitching this offseason. The Toronto Blue Jays quickly snatched up Dylan Cease on a lucrative deal. Aside from him, the market has been quiet.
The next major domino to drop will be Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai, whose free agency should resolve next week. Framber Valdez is another big name, drawing interest from the Orioles, Giants, and Mets. Until those two starters find a new club, mid-rotation starters like Giolito will have to wait.
Giolito is also a client of Scott Boras, who has gone to great lengths in the past to wait out the market. The 2023-24 offseason serves as the most recent example, as four Boras clients waited until March to sign.
While his 3.41 ERA looks pristine, his underlying metrics should give teams pause. His strikeout rate dropped to 19.7%, the lowest since 2018. Considering the poor quality of his contact metrics, with his hard-hit and barrel rates listed in the 45th and 39th percentiles, it’s safe to say he’s unlikely to repeat that ERA.
It’s more likely that Giolito will be one of the last starting pitchers on the market, as he mostly appeals to teams looking for a veteran starter. He appeals as a potential trade flip at the deadline for a rebuilding club or stabilize the back of the rotation for a contender. MLB Trade Rumors predicts he’ll sign a two-year, $32 million deal, while the median crowd-sourced projection has two-years and $36 million.
Like Heavy Sports’s content? Be sure to follow us.
This article was originally published on Heavy Sports
The post Lucas Giolito Open to Red Sox Return, But Path Looks Closed appeared first on Heavy Sports.
