SANTA CLARA – On display now at the Pro Football Hall of Fame is a memento from the 49ers’ last game, only it’s Jacoby Brissett’s Arizona Cardinals jersey after he set an NFL record with 47 completions last Sunday.
Embarrassing as that may be, the 49ers brought home their seventh victory of the season. Winning is all that matters from here on out to the playoffs, and possibly back home to Levi’s Stadium for Super Bowl LX in this bizarro-world season.
That’s why the 49ers (7-4) cannot overlook the surprisingly upstart Carolina Panthers (6-5) in Monday night’s matchup.
“It gets more important the later you get in the year, especially playing against a team right now who’s in the playoff hunt, fighting for first place in their division,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “So, I think we fully understand how important it is to get a back-to-back win.”
The 49ers have not done that since their 3-0 start, instead alternating wins and losses each weekend amid myriad injuries.
The Panthers had won just twice in 20 road games dating to 2023 before winning their past three away from Charlotte. They’re seeking their first Monday Night Football road win since 2016, in their first encore away from home since then.
They’re not total strangers out here. They were, after all, in the NFC West from 1995-2001. They lost Super Bowl 50 here a decade ago. And they clobbered Shanahan 23-3 in his 49ers debut in 2017.
But, again, all that matters now is who wins Monday night and makes a sizeable step toward the playoffs. Here are five keys for the 49ers to make that happen:
1. STOP THE RUN
The No. 1 task for any defense is stopping the run, and Monday night, that puts the 49ers’ focus on Rico Dowdle. His patient style paid off with a 1,079-yard season last season as the Dallas Cowboys’ starter, and he’s carried that over this season to the Panthers.
He is averaging 5 yards per carry, and he’s 167 yards shy of a 1,000-yard season. Mind you, he ran for 391 yards combined in back-to-back games against Miami and Dallas last month. Dowdle played a bit role as a Cowboys backup in two previous games against the 49ers, totaling just 26 yards in those 2020 and ’23 games. Spelling him are Chubba Hubbard and rookie Trevor Etienne.
Curtis Robinson’s first career start comes with weighty responsibility as the play-relaying middle linebacker role previously occupied by Fred Warner and Tatum Bethune, the latter of whom is likely out these next two games before the Week 14 bye because of last Sunday’s high-ankle sprain.
2. TIGHTER PASS DEFENSE
The 49ers not only failed to sack Brissett amid his 47-completion barrage, they yielded the fourth-most yards in their history (452). Carolina’s Bryce Young almost threw for that many on Sunday, too.
In beating the Atlanta Falcons 30-27 in overtime, Young delivered a career-best game (448 yards, three touchdowns, 123.2 rating). He has a bona fide No. 1 target in Tetairoa McMillan, who leads all rookies with 748 yards (four touchdowns). The 6-foot-5 McMillan had 130 yards and two touchdowns last Sunday, but he’s yet to produce a reception longer than 40 yards.
Deommodore Lenoir and Malik Mustapha had interceptions last week, perhaps signaling the 49ers’ long-awaited launch point for a takeaway trend. The 49ers’ pass rush, led by Bryce Huff and Keion White, also could wake up and get to Young, who was sacked five times last game.
Pay particular attention to intermediate passes between 10 and 19 yards, where McMillan has thrived (407 yards) and the 49ers defense has waned (111.3 passer rating).
3. AN ‘UNWANTED’ McCAFFREY
McCaffrey entered the NFL in 2017 with a chip on his shoulder and carried it with him from the Panthers’ trade to the 49ers three years ago. Motivation is never a concern. Perhaps he will channel his post-trade emotions into a third 100-yard game in the past six weeks, though the 49ers certainly wouldn’t mind another three-touchdown outing like last game.
“In hindsight, I firmly believe it’s the best thing that ever happened to me,” McCaffrey said in May 2023 about the trade. “But at the time, it was bittersweet, right? You’re leaving (Carolina). In my head, I was pissed off, and to be frank, I felt, ‘You guys don’t want me anymore.’”
Fullback Kyle Juszczyk called it a “weird” feeling the first time he faced his original team, the Baltimore Ravens, and said: “I’m sure Christian is going to have some of that. There’s going to be guys he played with over there and a few coaches, the medical staff. I’m sure he’ll be extra juiced up to go out there and put on a good performance.”
The Panthers struggled last week to slow one of McCaffrey’s fellow all-purpose backs in Bijan Robinson, who ran for 104 yards and two touchdowns while adding 39 receiving yards.
4. RED ZONE EFFICIENCY
Often seizing on defensive coverages they’ve scouted, the 49ers have scored touchdowns on 12 of their past 15 red-zone drives over the past three games, and 16 of 19 dating to their Oct. 19 win over Atlanta.
That has pumped them up to the 11th-best red-zone offense in the league, with a 63.4% conversion rate. After a down 2024 season (57.1%), this full-strength 49ers offense could be trending back toward its league-leading mark in 2023 (67.2%).
The Panthers defense ranks 29th in red-zone efficiency, yielding touchdowns on 65.8% of such drives.
If the 49ers don’t score touchdowns, they should get points from newly signed kicker Matt Gay, who’s filling in after Eddy Piñeiro’s hamstring strain Sunday. Gay has made all 43 field-goal attempts in his career inside 30 yards and 84% on overall field-goal tries, though just 32 of 54 from 50 yards and longer.
5. WIDE RECEIVER OUTBURST
With Brandon Aiyuk’s comeback on indefinite hold and a 2026 breakup on the horizon, the time is ripe for Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne to rise up and link up with Brock Purdy, whose right big toe is amenable to a second straight start for the first time this season.
Purdy may have thrown three touchdown passes last Sunday in his triumphant return from a six-game hiatus, but they predictably went to George Kittle (two) and Christian McCaffrey (one). Pearsall had one catch for no gain, Bourne got shut out to remain 18 yards shy of a $500,000 bonus and Jennings has just 378 yards in a highly publicized contract year. The only 49ers wide receivers under contract for 2026 are Pearsall, Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing and, for now, Aiyuk, pending a likely March exit.
While Purdy will be on the lookout for any open target, it’s best to avoid Jaycee Horn, a fifth-year cornerback who has a team-high three interceptions.
