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Avalanche Journal: 10 observations from a wild, roller-coaster start to the season


What a year this month has been for the Colorado Avalanche.

The Avs knew they would be shorthanded to start the 2024-25 season, with three key forwards unavailable until November at the earliest. They didn’t expect the injury situation to get even worse.

All three of the missing forwards on opening night have spent time as the first-line left wing over the past few seasons. Then Jonathan Drouin got hurt in Las Vegas and hasn’t played since. Then Ross Colton replaced him, had a smashing start with eight goals, and is now expected “to miss some time” after blocking a shot with his right foot Monday night.

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Oh, and No. 2 defenseman Devon Toews also missed four of the first 10 games as well. Toss in an 0-4 start, a five-game winning streak and four of the top scorers in the NHL, but also some of the worst goaltending? Yeah, it’s been a lot.

Here are some observations from a wild first 10 games of the season.

1. Most of the numbers at this point are still more noise than signal. Even with two poor overall performances (vs. the Islanders and Blackhawks), the base of the Avalanche’s statistical profile is still strong. The Avs are sixth in expected goals for percentage and fourth in scoring chances for percentage at 5-on-5.

Adding Drouin, Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin should only improve the club’s 5-on-5 play. Colorado has actually been better defensively than offensively at even strength. The Avs are second in shots on goal allowed per 60 minutes and sixth in expected goals against per 60. Those three guys were among the best defensive forwards on the team last year, and will obviously improve the offensive punch.

2. If the injuries and the goaltending woes weren’t bad enough, the Avs have also dealt with some poor shooting luck. Colorado is 20th in shooting percentage at 5-on-5, and just 28th in high-danger shooting percentage. More high-percentage shots from guys like Lehkonen and Nichushkin should help.

Colton has eight goals but also leads the NHL with three shots off the crossbar. Cale Makar has also hit the iron three times (two posts, one crossbar). The Avs have shot it well on the power play, but some positive regression could be coming.

3. Justus Annunen needs to prove he can play well against good teams. Annunen has played much better than Alexandar Georgiev, but he also faced five teams that didn’t reach the playoffs last year. Georgiev has been better since his first two starts, but still far from good enough to clearly be the No. 1 goaltender. The opening for Annunen (or Kaapo Kahkonen) remains.

4. Of all the places the Avs could have missed Lehkonen and Nichushkin the most, the penalty kill probably wasn’t at the top of many people’s lists. But it might be the biggest area where they are needed. They were fourth and fifth among the forwards …read more

Source:: The Denver Post – Sports

      

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