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Big 12 football outlook: Our Over/Under breakdown of the 2024 win totals for each team


Welcome to the first installment of a Hotline series looking ahead to the Big 12 race — a race with 16 teams, no divisions and plenty of parity.

Kansas State and Utah are the favorites, according to the 2024 win totals published by FanDuel, but neither carries a total in double digits. Instead, oddsmakers have pegged the Wildcats and Utes for 9.5 wins.

That seems reasonable.

The Hotline examined rosters and schedules — now that the transfer window is closed, depth charts are easier to sketch — then matched our forecasts against the FanDuel totals.

To illustrate our confidence level for each pick, we allocated a hypothetical $2,500.

Please note: Win totals are based on 12 games played; conference championships and bowl games don’t count.

(Teams listed alphabetically)

Arizona
Total: 7.5
Our call: Over
Amount wagered: $150
Comment: First-year coach Brent Brennan kept his core together, including quarterback Noah Fifita and receiver Tetairoa McMillan, which should prevent a substantial backslide. The non-conference trip to Kansas State in Week 3 adds a hurdle, but the Cats have seven home games against middle- and lower-tier opponents. One or two road victories — perhaps UCF, or TCU — should be all they need to hit the Over.

Arizona State
Total: 4.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $250
Comment: The Sun Devils don’t have a creampuff on the non-conference schedule — Wyoming won nine games last year; Texas State won eight; Mississippi State won five — and they drew a brutal array of road games in the Big 12 rotation. Kenny Dillingham has added impact players, but not enough. In our view, oddsmakers could have justified setting the total at 3.5.

Baylor
Total: 5.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $125
Comment: We couldn’t help but notice a quirk in the schedule, with the Bears playing all four of the September games against teams from the Mountain Time Zone: Utah (road), Air Force (home), Colorado (road) and Brigham Young  (home). How is that relevant? Because they must win at least two of the four to make the bowl math work. And we aren’t sure about a split.

Brigham Young
Total: 4.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $250
Comment: The easiest call on the board, partly because of the Cougars’ flawed roster but mostly because of their  insane schedule. It features two difficult non-conference road games (SMU and Wyoming) and all the top teams in the Big 12: Arizona, Utah, Oklahoma State and the Kansas schools. BYU has won at least four games every year since 1970, but we see 3-9 as a distinct possibility.

Cincinnati
Total: 5.5
Our call: Over
Amount wagered: $100
Comment: We view Year 2 under Scott Satterfield as a pivot point for the Bearcats, thanks largely to the arrival of quarterback Brendan Sorsby from Indiana. Add a manageable non-conference schedule and four key intra-Big 12  misses (Oklahoma State, Kansas, Utah and Arizona), and that win total should be surpassed by the middle of November.

Colorado
Total: 5.5
Our call: Under
Amount wagered: $75
Comment: Two things, equally true: The Buffaloes will be better next season than they were last season; but their record won’t reflect the improvement because of a rugged schedule and the …read more

Source:: The Mercury News – Entertainment

      

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