I’m not about to remind you how badly I blew it with my Big Ten football preview last season.
If I did, I’d have to admit I not only failed to see Indiana’s greatness coming — Curt Cignetti’s destroyers set the new bar for all national title contenders, going 16-0 — but actually had the Hoosiers missing the College Football Playoff altogether.
Talk about an indefensible whiff. Luckily for me, I’ve already moved on to the present.
Opening games are here for every team in the Big Ten except for USC, which is 1-0 after an extra-early creampuff win. The Trojans have eyes on a playoff breakthrough, but who doesn’t?
I’ve gone game-by-game through the schedule to predict this order of finish, which factors in the 18-team conference’s absurdly complicated tiebreaker rules insofar as a person of moderate intelligence and a growing desire to think about lunch can understand them.
Here’s how it’s all going to play out:
1. Ohio State
2025: 12-2 overall, 9-0 Big Ten.
2026 regular-season prediction: 11-1, 9-0.
THE BUCKEYES have veteran quarterback Julian Sayin, all-world receiver Jeremiah Smith, stud running back Bo Jackson, four-fifths of last year’s starting offensive line, NFL players at every level on defense and the nation’s No. 1 ranking going in. The schedule is an absolute monster, though, with all the heaviest hitters on it. A Week 2 mega-test at Texas will help, win or lose, down the line.
2. Oregon
2025: 13-2, 8-1.
2026 regular-season prediction: 11-1, 8-1.
THE DUCKS are the only conference foe that goes toe-to-toe with Ohio State at spending on talent. That and having a QB, Dante Moore, who can carry the team on his back in a tough environment (see: at Penn State last season) are two of the reasons the Ducks have as good a shot at getting to the playoff as anybody. Can they win it, though? Finding the necessary level of brute physicality is the only step left.
3. Michigan
2025: 9-4, 7-2.
2026 regular-season prediction: 9-3, 7-2.
THE WOLVERINES might need a minute to hit their stride under a new, Kyle Whittingham-led coaching staff, which is why I have them losing early to Oklahoma but beating Indiana at the Big House in late October. No such luck later on at Oregon or at Ohio State, though.
4. Indiana
2025: 16-0, 9-0.
2026 regular-season prediction: 10-2, 7-2.
THE HOOSIERS can’t just plug-and-play like they’re peak Alabama, Georgia or Ohio State, can they? No, really, can they? There isn’t an abundance of skill production back from the Fernando Mendoza-led offense that cashed in seemingly every single time it needed a touchdown last season. Transfer QB Josh Hoover is the real deal, but Mendoza was a gem.
5. USC
2025: 9-4, 7-2.
2026 regular-season prediction: 9-3, 6-3.
THE TROJANS took an important leap from Year 1 to Year 2 in the conference. The next move is to contend for the top spot in the conference. Oregon and Ohio State have to go to Los Angeles for what could be the biggest couple of games there since Lincoln Riley arrived. Alas, I have USC losing both those games as well as the one at Indiana.
6. Washington
2025: 9-4, 5-4.
2026 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 5-4.
THE HUSKIES are going to be extremely tough to beat in Seattle, but are they ready to take their A-Game with them on the road more consistently? Last year’s total dud at Wisconsin — inexcusable — cost them a shot at 10 wins.
7. Illinois
2025: 9-4, 5-4.
2026 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 5-4.
THE ILLINI are eighth on the “others receiving votes” list in the preseason AP poll, a far cry from how they were perceived heading in a year ago, but a 5-1 start — book it — will at least give this team a shot at accomplishing something big. Will Bret Bielema ever have the dominant line play he seeks?
8. Penn State
2025: 7-6, 3-6.
2026 regular-season prediction: 8-4, 5-4.
THE NITTANY LIONS’ have a dream schedule, which has some getting cute and picking them to get back to the playoff in Matt Campbell’s first season as coach. Possible? Sure, but the transfers Campbell brought with him from Iowa State will have to deliver at the highest level.
9. Iowa
2025: 9-4, 6-3.
2026 regular-season prediction: 7-5, 4-5.
THE HAWKEYES very rarely win fewer than eight games, but this team is a candidate for it. There is so little experience on offense, it’s scary.
10. Minnesota
2025: 8-5, 5-4.
2026 regular-season prediction: 7-5, 4-5.
THE GOPHERS might have to win a few games in November just to pull themselves into the bowl picture. Better than the middle of the pack would be surprising and impressive.
11. Maryland
2025: 4-8, 1-8.
2026 regular-season prediction: 6-6, 4-5.
THE TERRAPINS have losable non-conference games against UConn and Virginia Tech and trips to Nebraska and Ohio State early in league play. Coach Mike Locksley could be cooked.
12. UCLA
2025: 3-9, 3-6.
2026 regular-season prediction: 5-7, 4-5.
THE BRUINS’ hopes in new coach Bob Chesney are riding on the Cignetti model: Win big at James Madison, bring a lot of transfers with you to a Power 4 school and shock the masses. We’ll see.
13. Northwestern
2025: 7-6, 4-5.
2026 regular-season prediction: 6-6, 3-6.
THE WILDCATS need their new stadium to be a game changer. But having Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State all on the road? That’s criminal.
14. Nebraska
2025: 7-6, 4-5.
2026 regular-season prediction: 6-6, 3-6.
THE HUSKERS have been under .500 in Big Ten play all three seasons under Matt Rhule and nine in a row overall. What else is new?
15. Wisconsin
2025: 4-8, 2-7.
2026 regular-season prediction: 5-7, 3-6.
THE BADGERS’ Luke Fickell would love to have Locksley’s job security. Badgers fans won’t ever forget the “Air Raid” fiasco.
16. Michigan State
2025: 4-8, 1-8.
2026 regular-season prediction: 3-9, 2-7.
THE SPARTANS are far behind in personnel in Year 1 of the Pat Fitzgerald era. Let the build begin. Northwestern at MSU in October will be intense.
17. Rutgers
2025: 5-7, 2-7.
2026 regular-season prediction: 4-8, 1-8.
THE SCARLET KNIGHTS often are a little better than it seems they should be, and this might be one of those seasons. So they’ve got that going for them.
18. Purdue
2025: 2-10, 0-9.
2026 regular-season prediction: 2-10, 1-8.
THE BOILERMAKERS have added a couple of 7-footers … wait, never mind, that’s basketball.