Chicago Public Schools enters a new school year Monday under a cloud of uncertainty.
Last month the Chicago School Board amended the district’s budget to assume the state will kick in more money to prevent layoffs and other cost-cutting measures. But those funds aren’t a sure bet.
In the meantime, schools are scrambling to bring back some laid-off staff or get by without the positions they lost. District leaders have expressed concerns about “consequences” later in the year if extra money doesn’t come through from the city or state. Enrollment dipped last year, and may fall again this year — setting up the district for more hard conversations about how it divides up resources.
At the same time, the district is about to get a new school board that could shift the balance of power and direction of the district.
Here’s a look at the four big issues WBEZ and the Chicago Sun-Times will be watching as the new school year gets underway.
How are budget cuts affecting schools?
At this point, parents might be confused about what students will face when classes resume on Monday. The news throughout the summer was that CPS, facing a $732 million budget deficit, was making painful cuts and laying off more than 1,000 staff.
Then the whole budget was turned on its head. In late July, the school board directed the district to use $100 million to “rescind and restore” positions.
But staff have yet to be brought back and it is unclear to what degree they will. CPS says that $100 million is not enough to open up all the closed positions. The work of incorporating rehired staff into buildings is “ongoing” and district officials hope to start putting them back in place as early as this week.
So, at least initially, schools will have fewer teachers, assistant principals, technology coordinators, security staff and reading specialists to help struggling students.
Kia Banks, the president of the Chicago Principals and Administrators Association, says principals “planned all summer for how to accommodate already devastating cuts” and though they are welcoming “people back because there are needs to be filled” it’s hard to do that seamlessly.
School district officials surveyed principals who lost staff last week to find out what positions are their top priorities to rehire. Now the district is trying to find out whether displaced staff members want to return.
CPS points out that the school district currently has a “record low” teacher vacancy rate of less than 2%, which likely means a lot of the laid-off staff have already found new positions. CPS officials are only contacting staff who have not found new jobs within the school district to limit disruption. If the former staff member isn’t available to fill a needed position, CPS officials will look to hire someone else.
Will budget problems interrupt the school year?
The school board passed an amended budget that assumes CPS will get extra money from the state that may never come through. The board members who backed this strategy want to put pressure on the state to fork over more money before accepting cuts. They note that, by the state’s own calculations, CPS needs nearly $2 billion more a year to provide an adequate education.
But CPS Supt. Macquline King expressed grave concerns about this plan and said it could have “devastating consequences later in the school year.”
She harkened to a time a decade ago when state money fell through. Hundreds of teachers and other staff were laid off midyear and “schools across the District were thrown into chaos,” she wrote.
The circumstances were different then — the layoffs happened after then-Gov. Bruce Rauner vetoed a $215 million pension payment for CPS and many parents and teachers said the school district was too quick to adopt austerity measures.
Still, some say the board members who voted to count on extra state aid were reckless. They don’t think that a supermajority of state lawmakers will vote for additional funding during the one-week veto session in November. They also point out that lawmakers would likely want to provide more funding for all school districts so it would cost the state way more than the $100 million CPS needs.
But here’s the reality: CPS needed some outside help to make it through the year regardless of which budget got passed.
King’s original budget, the one that many board members were prepared to approve unchanged, had a $281 million hole. She and her staff said they hoped additional money would come through, most likely from the city. If nothing materialized, they said they would impose five furlough days and a midyear spending and hiring freeze.
After the board changed the budget the hole grew to $397 million.
But the district has many options before laying off staff midyear. The furloughs and the midyear freeze could be back on the table. Still, that’s unlikely to reduce students’ time in class. King originally proposed the furloughs on days when students wouldn’t be in attendance.
Mayor Brandon Johnson could again pull a record amount of money out of special taxing districts called TIFs, though CPS won’t find out until the fall when the city goes through its budget process. Last year, CPS got $552 million from a TIF surplus.
Ultimately, it’s unlikely that the mayor and school board members who didn’t want layoffs going into the school year would allow them to happen midyear at a time when they’d be even more painful.
Will CPS enrollment drop again?
CPS enrollment has dwindled steadily from its high of nearly 439,000 students in the 2002-2003 school year to just over 316,00 last school year. Enrollment fell last year after two years of modest gains due to an influx of nearly 9,000 migrant students.
That growth has leveled off, but immigration policy continues to affect the district’s enrollment.
Many CPS families were affected by the Trump administration’s bruising deportation campaign last fall. Some students were detained, and federal activity around schools stoked fear in immigrant communities. There were spikes in absenteeism among English language learners who chose to stay home during enforcement actions. Some families considered leaving the city to escape the threat.
Whether that happened will become clearer after the district releases its official enrollment count later this fall.
Last year, Latino student enrollment fell by 4.7%, while Black student enrollment dipped by 2.6%. By contrast, white and Asian American enrollment increased slightly.
Enrollment is seen as an important indicator of the district’s health. It’s also tied to how CPS allocates resources. This year, for example, the district planned to cut assistant principal positions at schools with fewer than 250 students to deal with its budget deficit. In the past, low enrollment led to school closures and consolidations.
There’s a few factors pushing the district’s enrollment down. One of the biggest: The city’s birth rate has fallen and there are fewer school-age children. In 2005, the city recorded just over 45,000 births. But that fell by more than 40% to around 27,000 in 2023. The district’s kindergarten cohort has shrunk by the thousands in recent years.
Additionally, an increasing number of families are choosing to send their children to schools outside CPS. Between 2008 and 2018, CPS served roughly 75% of the city’s school-age population. By 2023, that had fallen to 71%, according to a report from the nonprofit advocacy group Kids First Chicago.
At the same time, the share of Chicago students enrolled in private school or classified in census data as “not enrolled” — which includes children who are homeschooled, have dropped out or are in between schools — has slightly increased.
Will the fully elected school board shake things up?
After decades of mayoral control and a few years in transition, Chicago’s school board soon will be fully elected for the first time.
It is currently split between elected and mayor-appointed members. A bloc aligned with Johnson and the Chicago Teachers Union make up a majority and so far have had the upper hand in votes.
But all 21 seats will be up for grabs in November’s elections and several interest groups, including those that represent other staff unions, the city’s business community and charter school advocates, are looking to influence the future of CPS.
This year 44 candidates are likely to appear on the ballot, including five competing in the citywide race for school board president. Endorsements and political donations are rolling in. Millions have already been spent in the election with three months to go.
When the new board is sworn in on Jan. 15, 2027, they’ll have a host of issues to tackle, including what to do if CPS does not get the extra funds it’s counting on from the city and state.
Several candidates have said they’d like to overhaul how the board works, especially when it comes to presenting and voting on a budget. Others have said they want to consider closing schools and evaluate whether the district should continue to increase property tax levies to the maximum allowed.