Welcome to the 2025-26 debut of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of a conference that doesn’t exist (yet) using analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season.
Most college basketball teams have completed one-third of their schedule based on the number of games played. But the portion of the regular season that shapes the postseason is close to completion.
Once December comes to a close and conference play begins in full force, the NET rankings and predictive analytics that frame NCAA Tournament access will have enough data to separate contenders from pretenders.
Were the rebuilt Pac-12 a reality this season, its outlook for March would be fairly bleak given where the nine teams are positioned in the NET rankings.
Only No. 3 Gonzaga is assured a berth in the 68-team field. Two others, No. 30 Utah State and No. 39 Boise State, are firmly on the bubble, with No. 54 Colorado State on the outskirts.
Nobody else is close.
Overall, teams in the new Pac-12, which officially reforms July 1, have an average NET ranking of 116.
There are a bevy of reasons, but three leap immediately to mind:
— The longstanding members who secured the conference’s continued existence, Oregon State and Washington State, are dragging down the collective’s NET rankings.
The Cougars are 189th in their second season under David Riley, while the Beavers are 199th in their 12th season of the Wayne Tinkle era.
— Texas State, which joins the Pac-12 from the Sun Belt, owns one of the worst resumes in major college basketball thanks to a soft schedule and five Quadrant IV wins (the lowest classification).
Sun Belt teams often accumulate losses in “buy games” against power conference opponents that produce hefty paychecks. That’s not the case with the Bobcats, who just lost three in a row to Lehigh, Rice and Seattle.
— San Diego State has underperformed.
The talented but erratic Aztecs lost at home to Troy, were run off the court by Michigan (94-54) and have no Quadrant I wins. Their NET ranking (83) is approximately double what we would have expected.
Prior to the season, the Hotline pegged the nine teams that will compete under the Pac-12 banner in 2026-27 to generate at least three NCAA Tournament bids this season, with a decent chance at four and perhaps five.
Instead, it’s increasingly apparent that the collection will be fortunate to produce three NCAA participants.
To the power rankings …
(NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Gonzaga (10-1)
NET: 3
Next up: vs. Campbell (Wednesday)
Comment: With seven victories over power conference opponents, including teams in the Big East, the Zags have built a resume sturdy enough to withstand any deterioration that will occur during round-robin play in the West Coast Conference, where eight teams have NET rankings below 100.
2. Utah State (9-1)
NET: 30
Next up: vs. Colorado State (Saturday)
Comment: You can see it coming three months out: Utah State’s fair-to-middlin’ non-conference schedule — and that’s probably a generous description on our part — will be the source of significant debate with the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
3. Colorado State (9-2)
NET: 54
Next up: at Utah State (Saturday)
Comment: We could quibble with a result or two (e.g., the home loss to Denver), but overall, there’s plenty to like from the Rams in their first season under coach Ali Farokhmanesh.
4. San Diego State (5-3)
NET: 83
Next up: vs. Air Force (Wednesday)
Comment: The Aztecs can remove the stains on their resume with one result: Beat Arizona on Saturday (in Phoenix), and they are back on track for an at-large berth.
5. Boise State (8-3)
NET: 39
Next up: at Nevada (Saturday)
Comment: Technically, the Broncos are 3-0 in Quadrant IV games, but that’s a tad deceiving because the loss to Division II Hawaii-Pacific doesn’t register. You can be sure the committee will discuss it ad nauseam if Boise State is in the at-large hunt.
6. Oregon State (6-5)
NET: 199
Next up: vs. Sam Houston (Wednesday)
Comment: The Beavers have two three-game winning streaks, but the rotten meat in the middle of their resume is a five-game losing streak from which there can be no recovery.
7. Texas State (7-5)
NET: 277
Next up: vs. Arkansas State (Wednesday)
Comment: Too late for Texas State to leave its men’s basketball program in the Sun Belt? Asking for eight friends.
8. Fresno State (6-5)
NET: 171
Next up: at UNLV (Saturday)
Comment: Here lies the remains of a once-flourishing basketball program that has not been truly relevant for a quarter century.
9. Washington State (3-8)
NET: 189
Next up: vs. Eastern Washington (Wednesday)
Comment: The season-opening home loss to Idaho was our first clue (in every sense) that the Cougars were headed nowhere — and would reach that destination with remarkable speed.
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